* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/15/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 50 60 68 76 81 83 82 78 75 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 50 60 68 76 81 83 82 78 75 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 6 8 12 14 22 19 SHEAR DIR 299 303 313 331 339 295 321 244 250 236 249 246 253 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 164 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 9 11 9 11 500-300 MB RH 47 50 53 56 55 49 44 43 45 43 43 42 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 850 MB VORT 55 64 63 58 55 53 48 53 52 46 46 44 30 LAND (KM) 73 104 148 183 218 282 321 351 345 338 352 323 206 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.9 18.4 19.2 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 79.1 79.6 80.0 80.3 80.9 81.3 81.6 81.6 81.9 82.3 82.8 83.4 HEAT CONTENT 114 116 110 109 108 109 110 112 111 115 116 104 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 23. 30. 38. 43. 46. 45. 44. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 30. 38. 46. 51. 53. 52. 48. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/15/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 5.61 Prob of RI= 57.1% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)