* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 53 61 68 74 77 78 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 53 61 68 74 77 78 78 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 7 6 3 10 3 5 3 6 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 301 317 338 353 322 338 290 323 171 257 220 246 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 11 10 11 8 10 8 10 8 10 500-300 MB RH 50 52 56 55 54 55 51 51 54 55 58 54 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 850 MB VORT 68 67 64 62 64 54 65 63 74 66 65 59 56 LAND (KM) 118 142 168 189 211 258 296 304 281 284 324 373 264 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.2 79.5 79.8 80.0 80.5 80.9 81.5 81.9 82.2 82.2 82.5 83.0 HEAT CONTENT 111 108 105 106 107 108 109 107 108 112 116 110 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 225/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 551 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 29. 36. 43. 47. 49. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 36. 43. 49. 52. 53. 53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.96 Prob of RI= 35.4% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)