* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/16/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 35 39 41 41 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 35 39 41 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 19 23 24 22 21 20 16 13 11 9 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 145 157 164 168 168 174 184 179 169 148 160 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.8 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 145 144 142 142 145 148 145 138 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 45 44 39 34 34 30 23 25 24 19 16 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 4 6 0 0 2 6 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -40 -37 -34 -40 -47 -50 -51 -47 -34 -33 -55 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 682 702 723 740 757 807 825 834 824 807 878 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.9 12.9 14.1 15.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.4 102.7 103.2 103.7 104.8 105.9 107.4 108.8 110.2 112.3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 630 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -29 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 11. 12. 13. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/16/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 3.01 Prob of RI= 9.4% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)