* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 66 75 82 87 88 87 85 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 66 75 82 87 88 87 85 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 7 5 8 11 5 3 3 4 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 317 349 22 13 346 12 333 317 243 309 273 48 180 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -49.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 8 10 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 54 58 59 60 59 57 58 64 65 68 63 67 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 -5 850 MB VORT 76 77 66 77 77 63 75 84 78 80 73 93 82 LAND (KM) 163 193 223 241 260 295 305 326 339 347 358 245 122 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.5 79.7 79.9 80.1 80.6 80.9 81.3 81.7 82.1 82.7 83.0 82.9 HEAT CONTENT 104 100 99 100 101 104 110 108 112 117 107 103 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 517 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 50 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 31. 39. 46. 50. 52. 53. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 36. 45. 52. 57. 58. 57. 55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 5.04 Prob of RI= 38.2% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)