* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/16/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 41 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 41 42 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 20 21 20 17 17 13 13 14 15 16 17 SHEAR DIR 155 168 167 168 169 170 175 167 150 136 142 136 147 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 144 142 140 139 139 141 145 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 48 42 38 37 37 28 26 29 25 24 24 26 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 8 6 7 9 2 4 0 -3 0 -1 1 2 850 MB VORT -41 -40 -44 -46 -51 -44 -41 -29 -27 -12 -14 -19 -40 LAND (KM) 700 715 731 749 767 809 879 943 1047 1133 1198 1249 1234 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.3 10.9 11.8 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.8 103.1 103.4 103.7 104.4 105.4 106.7 108.3 109.9 111.9 113.6 115.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 624 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/16/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.33 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 3.09 Prob of RI= 10.8% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)