* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 57 65 74 80 83 83 82 80 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 57 65 74 80 83 83 82 76 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 1 5 9 5 5 1 4 4 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 314 353 327 307 342 351 313 325 313 269 228 244 197 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 164 162 162 162 162 162 160 155 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 10 8 9 7 9 8 9 9 500-300 MB RH 57 57 58 59 58 54 57 64 62 56 64 67 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 8 1 6 21 850 MB VORT 67 57 73 79 70 82 86 91 71 77 80 95 89 LAND (KM) 161 180 199 215 232 263 334 331 320 321 192 61 16 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.1 20.2 21.5 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.5 79.7 79.9 80.1 80.6 81.4 82.1 82.7 83.1 83.5 83.7 83.9 HEAT CONTENT 105 104 105 106 107 108 109 116 111 102 104 96 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 578 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 30. 38. 43. 47. 48. 48. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 27. 35. 44. 50. 53. 53. 52. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 5.15 Prob of RI= 41.7% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)