* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/16/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 36 39 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 36 39 40 39 38 SHEAR (KTS) 22 21 21 20 19 15 11 9 10 14 16 15 14 SHEAR DIR 169 171 169 172 176 198 190 174 142 131 119 110 98 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 143 140 140 140 140 141 143 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 500-300 MB RH 43 38 37 36 34 28 28 25 23 22 24 28 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 13 8 5 3 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 850 MB VORT -32 -36 -40 -46 -45 -46 -45 -43 -36 -18 -15 -21 -21 LAND (KM) 696 716 737 763 790 861 928 1011 1113 1222 1335 1476 1611 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.4 103.7 104.1 104.4 105.5 106.8 108.0 109.3 110.8 112.5 114.5 116.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 615 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -3 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/16/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.08 Scaled RI index= 2.82 Prob of RI= 5.9% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)