* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 57 66 70 74 76 76 72 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 57 66 70 74 68 72 68 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 10 11 11 8 6 5 11 6 5 11 13 SHEAR DIR 324 312 321 336 348 321 321 281 282 287 315 263 270 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 162 162 162 159 152 148 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.3 -50.4 -49.8 -50.8 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 9 8 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 56 54 56 60 60 64 66 67 67 69 69 63 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 17 6 0 -1 7 850 MB VORT 60 76 82 76 65 65 70 62 81 77 91 57 69 LAND (KM) 125 136 148 173 198 254 328 364 318 196 -4 87 222 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.3 20.2 21.9 23.3 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.5 79.6 79.9 80.1 80.7 81.4 82.0 82.7 83.4 84.2 84.4 84.2 HEAT CONTENT 112 110 110 109 108 110 115 115 103 104 85 76 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 649 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 61 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 36. 40. 44. 46. 46. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-FOU 10/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.17 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.3% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)