* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/16/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 33 34 36 39 40 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 33 34 36 39 40 41 40 38 SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 19 20 18 12 9 9 8 14 13 15 16 SHEAR DIR 168 168 170 177 192 200 175 157 138 133 108 96 94 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 144 142 141 141 141 143 144 144 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 500-300 MB RH 40 37 35 33 28 30 30 25 23 25 30 28 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -37 -43 -48 -54 -50 -48 -41 -27 -9 3 -6 -10 -20 LAND (KM) 691 703 712 737 764 844 939 1041 1148 1241 1331 1483 1621 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.5 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.2 104.5 105.0 105.4 106.3 107.4 108.7 110.0 111.6 113.2 115.2 117.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 569 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/16/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.34 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.03 Scaled RI index= 2.68 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)