* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TWENTY-FOU 10/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 44 51 59 67 71 75 77 76 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 44 51 59 67 71 75 77 76 71 SHEAR (KTS) 9 13 10 8 6 9 4 10 6 8 9 10 19 SHEAR DIR 306 326 330 332 302 321 303 287 288 312 306 277 256 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 164 162 162 162 160 157 155 152 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 10 8 9 7 9 8 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 54 54 56 57 59 62 61 55 53 52 52 58 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 850 MB VORT 75 78 67 62 71 65 79 57 86 75 79 55 51 LAND (KM) 152 174 198 222 247 316 358 335 237 155 69 120 263 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.5 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.9 80.1 80.4 80.6 81.3 82.2 83.0 83.8 84.6 85.2 85.7 86.1 HEAT CONTENT 108 108 108 108 109 113 117 105 102 102 92 76 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 679 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 75 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 39. 41. 42. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 37. 41. 45. 47. 46. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWENTY-FOU 10/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 133.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.71 Prob of RI= 25.8% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)