* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * PILAR 10/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 45 48 49 49 46 42 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 45 48 49 49 46 42 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 19 18 17 13 9 8 8 12 15 13 17 SHEAR DIR 163 161 169 183 194 190 166 149 122 119 123 129 127 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 145 145 144 144 145 145 144 144 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 42 37 34 30 27 27 22 23 23 26 26 28 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 5 5 6 7 4 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 850 MB VORT -46 -55 -60 -58 -63 -61 -54 -40 -25 -26 -28 -31 -28 LAND (KM) 688 696 708 737 770 864 935 1027 1149 1267 1367 1427 1485 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.9 105.3 105.9 106.4 107.6 108.5 109.7 111.3 113.0 114.6 116.2 117.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 625 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PILAR 10/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 2.78 Prob of RI= 5.1% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)