* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 60 69 76 81 84 83 80 75 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 51 60 69 76 81 84 83 80 75 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 9 6 10 5 4 3 5 8 10 20 23 SHEAR DIR 311 331 334 307 299 339 282 308 259 295 285 282 270 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 164 164 162 162 164 162 160 157 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 9 10 8 10 9 10 10 12 11 500-300 MB RH 54 57 59 60 58 61 57 54 48 47 48 48 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 850 MB VORT 73 60 55 69 66 67 62 63 54 56 28 23 7 LAND (KM) 170 192 215 254 295 307 276 286 252 168 61 15 118 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.6 21.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.9 80.1 80.6 81.0 82.1 83.2 84.2 85.1 85.8 86.4 86.9 87.3 HEAT CONTENT 106 106 107 107 109 114 102 79 92 93 102 87 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 594 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 37. 42. 44. 44. 42. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 16. 25. 34. 41. 46. 49. 48. 45. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.84 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.75 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.89 Prob of RI= 32.9% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)