* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 38 42 46 49 50 48 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 38 42 46 49 50 48 44 SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 18 17 17 11 8 9 10 13 14 18 19 SHEAR DIR 161 170 184 192 194 193 171 128 124 114 120 132 142 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 145 144 144 144 144 144 143 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 500-300 MB RH 38 34 27 27 28 24 20 22 26 26 28 29 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 7 5 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 -2 3 0 850 MB VORT -56 -56 -61 -66 -66 -61 -54 -42 -29 -16 -22 -32 -29 LAND (KM) 721 748 780 824 870 976 1115 1242 1366 1464 1500 1537 1589 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.4 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.8 106.4 107.1 107.7 109.0 110.6 112.3 114.0 115.7 117.4 118.8 120.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 676 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 18. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 2.81 Prob of RI= 5.6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)