* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 53 62 72 80 85 89 90 89 86 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 53 62 72 80 85 89 90 69 68 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 4 4 7 5 4 3 7 9 2 5 2 SHEAR DIR 347 3 24 347 360 57 360 85 99 97 46 142 161 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 164 162 162 164 164 164 162 157 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 9 7 9 7 10 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 60 63 65 63 62 63 55 51 52 46 39 36 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 5 -2 -5 850 MB VORT 75 71 86 91 86 83 76 70 63 82 97 110 106 LAND (KM) 255 283 315 285 254 210 172 192 222 184 49 -41 85 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.9 21.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 80.2 80.6 81.0 81.4 82.5 83.8 84.6 85.1 85.8 86.9 87.3 87.3 HEAT CONTENT 95 100 100 104 101 91 91 88 86 95 96 9999 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 190/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 458 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 72 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 17. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 26. 34. 42. 47. 50. 51. 51. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 37. 45. 50. 54. 55. 54. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.71 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.37 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.8% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)