* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * SIXTEEN 10/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 26 31 36 40 42 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 26 31 36 40 42 44 44 44 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 18 16 16 7 4 8 9 10 8 13 14 SHEAR DIR 166 178 194 194 195 199 85 112 126 139 132 137 166 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 146 147 146 145 144 144 142 142 143 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 4 500-300 MB RH 37 29 26 27 27 20 19 25 27 32 37 35 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 5 9 6 4 0 0 -3 2 1 0 0 2 850 MB VORT -52 -51 -60 -64 -66 -69 -64 -40 -32 -28 -18 -4 9 LAND (KM) 720 761 805 848 894 1035 1180 1289 1357 1438 1579 1656 1658 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.6 107.4 108.1 108.7 110.5 112.6 114.0 115.1 116.8 119.3 121.0 122.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 660 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -23 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)