* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 64 74 82 89 95 99 99 96 90 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 64 74 82 89 95 99 99 96 90 SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 8 8 7 5 6 3 4 2 1 11 16 SHEAR DIR 348 354 341 357 22 42 24 31 33 316 293 238 231 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 164 164 162 164 164 162 160 157 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 8 9 8 10 9 11 10 10 500-300 MB RH 64 68 68 68 68 66 59 53 51 53 51 47 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 7 4 -3 850 MB VORT 75 86 86 81 86 87 76 63 65 68 86 86 75 LAND (KM) 288 319 289 246 208 165 161 234 214 150 90 15 171 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.5 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.3 80.7 81.2 81.7 82.8 83.8 84.8 85.5 86.0 86.3 86.8 87.5 HEAT CONTENT 96 97 96 98 89 79 93 83 87 92 93 87 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 190/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 485 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 78 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 29. 36. 43. 48. 51. 51. 49. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 14. 19. 29. 37. 44. 50. 54. 54. 51. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.19 Scaled RI index= 4.82 Prob of RI= 30.5% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)