* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 35 40 45 48 50 48 45 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 35 40 45 48 50 48 45 SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 18 18 16 8 6 9 11 10 14 16 17 SHEAR DIR 174 188 191 194 207 212 96 100 97 108 113 137 160 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 147 148 146 145 144 143 141 142 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 29 27 26 24 21 17 22 27 32 37 36 39 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 10 7 3 2 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -55 -55 -57 -61 -63 -69 -52 -39 -32 -29 -33 -14 -11 LAND (KM) 761 807 856 912 960 1061 1179 1305 1388 1484 1602 1715 1796 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.1 108.9 109.7 111.3 112.9 114.6 116.4 118.1 119.9 121.7 123.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 636 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 23. 20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 3.04 Prob of RI= 9.9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)