* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 72 82 90 96 101 103 101 96 90 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 72 82 90 96 101 103 101 96 90 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 7 5 3 3 5 4 2 2 9 9 17 SHEAR DIR 345 335 344 14 60 16 106 13 305 341 195 206 192 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 164 162 162 164 164 160 157 155 154 151 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 10 9 7 9 8 10 9 11 10 8 500-300 MB RH 68 67 67 68 68 61 54 48 48 43 39 36 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 3 -2 1 -5 -7 850 MB VORT 82 82 83 90 101 87 88 74 86 85 103 81 118 LAND (KM) 325 306 251 219 201 184 231 275 205 116 68 138 101 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.8 22.8 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.5 81.0 81.5 82.0 83.0 84.2 84.9 85.4 85.8 86.4 85.6 83.7 HEAT CONTENT 84 87 94 98 83 102 85 83 92 95 82 78 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 511 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 79 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 29. 37. 42. 47. 50. 49. 44. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 22. 32. 40. 46. 51. 53. 51. 46. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.56 Scaled RI index= 5.29 Prob of RI= 46.4% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)