* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 35 42 48 52 55 57 56 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 35 42 48 52 55 57 56 52 SHEAR (KTS) 24 24 21 18 14 6 3 4 4 5 7 8 13 SHEAR DIR 184 194 199 206 209 209 160 2 53 35 88 113 161 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 148 146 144 144 142 141 142 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 27 27 25 21 20 21 29 36 40 50 48 46 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 13 5 2 3 3 0 -1 -4 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 850 MB VORT -53 -53 -59 -59 -65 -60 -41 -35 -27 -18 -7 1 17 LAND (KM) 820 872 922 979 1041 1179 1334 1423 1518 1632 1761 1862 1957 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.4 109.2 110.1 111.0 112.8 114.8 116.7 118.5 120.2 122.0 123.7 125.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 646 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 31. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.96 Scaled RI index= 3.35 Prob of RI= 15.6% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)