* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 78 84 93 100 106 109 109 105 97 88 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 78 84 93 100 106 109 109 105 97 77 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 8 2 6 5 2 4 6 5 10 9 24 SHEAR DIR 340 334 354 21 325 6 51 289 257 291 223 209 219 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 162 162 162 162 162 159 155 154 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.2 -50.3 -49.4 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 10 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 9 4 500-300 MB RH 68 68 69 69 65 61 59 57 53 52 51 51 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3 10 1 8 21 0 850 MB VORT 90 92 91 98 88 72 64 72 65 78 68 117 154 LAND (KM) 331 317 289 269 271 252 326 200 78 34 63 151 -9 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.9 20.0 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.4 80.8 81.4 81.9 82.9 83.7 84.4 84.9 84.9 84.3 83.0 81.3 HEAT CONTENT 87 95 99 103 108 106 97 104 97 82 79 59 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 493 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 82 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 30. 36. 41. 44. 44. 41. 35. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 18. 24. 33. 40. 46. 49. 49. 45. 37. 28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 5.08 Prob of RI= 39.5% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)