* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 75 80 85 92 99 103 105 106 101 93 85 V (KT) LAND 65 69 75 80 85 92 99 103 105 106 101 93 69 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 5 6 8 5 6 8 9 7 17 21 25 SHEAR DIR 320 343 335 316 339 48 280 229 277 259 244 211 231 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 162 160 157 157 154 149 145 146 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.7 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 8 4 500-300 MB RH 67 70 73 68 68 62 56 51 54 50 48 46 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 12 0 2 6 9 6 -14 850 MB VORT 80 86 92 82 67 71 73 78 74 85 100 136 172 LAND (KM) 307 310 292 295 299 301 190 83 30 78 197 36 221 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.4 20.1 21.3 22.0 23.0 24.3 26.1 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.8 81.2 81.7 82.1 83.4 85.0 85.4 85.0 84.7 84.6 82.2 78.2 HEAT CONTENT 98 102 107 108 112 99 100 92 86 79 57 16 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 560 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 92 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 31. 35. 36. 37. 33. 27. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 34. 38. 40. 41. 36. 28. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 5.18 Prob of RI= 42.8% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)