* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 45 50 53 56 57 57 54 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 45 50 53 56 57 57 54 49 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 9 5 1 6 9 6 9 3 9 18 18 SHEAR DIR 198 199 192 207 311 320 347 334 333 155 172 185 203 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 145 145 144 141 143 143 140 138 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 23 19 16 16 19 28 38 46 53 47 48 45 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 2 0 0 0 -4 0 -6 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -54 -50 -54 -52 -55 -55 -54 -45 -26 -6 -6 -2 8 LAND (KM) 937 1006 1084 1191 1305 1445 1587 1718 1800 1862 1893 1905 1906 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.4 111.5 112.9 114.2 117.1 119.8 121.9 123.8 125.1 126.0 126.6 127.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 18. 16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. 24. 19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.87 Scaled RI index= 3.63 Prob of RI= 20.8% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)