* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 81 86 92 100 105 108 109 106 101 92 80 V (KT) LAND 70 75 81 86 92 100 105 108 109 106 101 67 61 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 9 8 6 4 6 11 7 13 15 28 40 SHEAR DIR 312 297 303 297 326 280 242 242 217 223 229 229 216 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 162 160 157 154 152 148 145 143 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.6 -49.8 -49.7 -49.2 -48.9 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 8 9 9 11 10 9 4 2 500-300 MB RH 64 66 66 65 65 62 59 51 47 42 41 37 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 -3 -6 -1 -14 850 MB VORT 86 83 74 73 76 61 79 86 110 87 142 146 134 LAND (KM) 293 288 294 275 276 311 171 98 129 149 201 -46 391 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 19.0 20.3 21.5 22.5 23.6 24.7 27.0 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.6 82.0 82.6 83.2 84.4 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.0 83.3 80.6 77.0 HEAT CONTENT 102 106 111 110 101 87 99 89 76 79 45 9999 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 91 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 26. 30. 32. 34. 32. 29. 21. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 22. 30. 35. 38. 39. 36. 31. 22. 10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 92.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.59 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 5.68 Prob of RI= 59.4% is 4.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)