* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 48 51 54 55 55 53 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 48 51 54 55 55 53 50 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 5 4 4 8 11 10 7 6 12 15 14 SHEAR DIR 197 180 169 131 73 339 342 337 25 132 151 172 205 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 145 144 142 141 143 143 142 142 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 500-300 MB RH 19 17 17 19 19 27 40 51 51 48 40 39 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -61 -61 -60 -62 -56 -53 -40 -36 -22 -16 -20 -12 -9 LAND (KM) 1005 1091 1187 1313 1403 1555 1722 1857 1940 1996 2033 2065 2098 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.6 112.8 114.3 115.7 118.5 121.0 123.1 124.7 125.8 126.5 127.1 127.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 607 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 23. 20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 3.70 Prob of RI= 22.0% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)