* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 105 112 118 124 129 132 129 125 116 103 86 V (KT) LAND 90 98 105 112 118 124 129 132 129 125 102 90 74 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 6 4 1 7 4 7 9 13 27 30 46 SHEAR DIR 326 327 308 321 64 298 259 250 211 214 201 204 214 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 164 162 159 157 154 151 148 146 132 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -48.8 -48.9 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 8 10 9 10 9 8 3 3 500-300 MB RH 68 69 65 62 61 56 55 53 46 42 35 26 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 0 0 -7 -13 0 0 850 MB VORT 88 80 76 86 86 78 97 114 120 158 191 175 86 LAND (KM) 232 237 225 239 276 268 152 83 102 126 -19 284 417 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.2 20.5 21.7 22.6 23.9 25.6 28.4 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.8 82.4 82.9 83.5 84.1 84.9 85.5 85.6 85.3 83.8 81.1 77.6 73.5 HEAT CONTENT 94 106 104 94 83 87 97 86 73 72 30 38 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 93 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 1. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 25. 31. 35. 37. 35. 31. 25. 13. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 16. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 39. 35. 26. 13. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 72.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.41 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.81 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.83 Scaled RI index= 4.79 Prob of RI= 28.9% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)