* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 48 52 55 57 56 53 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 48 52 55 57 56 53 48 SHEAR (KTS) 7 2 4 5 2 8 9 9 6 10 16 16 17 SHEAR DIR 192 136 97 106 154 339 343 17 127 150 180 199 198 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 144 142 142 143 142 141 140 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 16 16 18 19 22 30 39 49 44 41 35 33 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 0 1 -4 -3 -4 -1 1 3 0 1 850 MB VORT -57 -56 -59 -52 -54 -51 -55 -63 -43 -37 -40 -41 -38 LAND (KM) 1072 1168 1273 1351 1413 1566 1727 1826 1867 1932 1986 2044 2120 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.1 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.6 113.9 115.2 116.5 119.1 121.4 123.3 124.5 125.6 126.5 127.4 128.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 589 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 21. 19. 17. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 27. 23. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.33 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 3.73 Prob of RI= 22.6% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)