* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 159 155 150 142 124 126 125 107 102 98 84 63 V (KT) LAND 150 159 155 150 142 124 126 125 107 102 83 68 47 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 9 7 4 9 4 7 14 19 27 24 62 SHEAR DIR 303 297 307 302 290 319 238 219 243 224 231 236 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.4 27.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 164 160 159 155 151 146 148 135 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -49.5 -50.1 -48.7 -49.9 -48.4 -49.3 -48.7 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 8 6 6 2 500-300 MB RH 67 62 58 60 63 62 60 63 57 56 56 59 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 4 5 15 17 18 46 38 850 MB VORT 74 71 84 93 73 84 74 95 101 178 135 119 156 LAND (KM) 245 231 231 270 318 211 93 93 141 104 150 507 597 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.5 23.7 25.2 27.2 30.7 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.8 83.3 83.8 84.3 84.9 85.3 85.3 84.7 82.4 78.6 74.1 69.3 HEAT CONTENT 106 106 98 89 84 99 96 72 74 35 44 17 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 106 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -18. -29. -41. -51. -63. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -8. -11. -8. -6. -6. -7. -9. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 11. 8. 3. -6. -21. -18. -12. -19. -12. -2. -2. -6. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 9. 6. 1. -7. -26. -25. -27. -45. -50. -53. -66. -87. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 9. 5. 0. -8. -26. -24. -25. -43. -48. -52. -66. -87. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 80.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 12.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.18 Prob of RI= 13.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)