* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/19/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 27 32 38 44 49 51 50 49 46 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 27 32 38 44 49 51 50 49 46 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 9 12 9 1 2 2 7 12 14 9 8 SHEAR DIR 142 112 110 130 149 212 356 22 150 176 195 207 161 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 144 144 142 142 143 143 142 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 17 19 23 27 28 30 34 42 43 40 33 30 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT -45 -48 -41 -40 -38 -38 -35 -19 -3 -18 -21 -14 -6 LAND (KM) 1106 1202 1307 1348 1399 1521 1601 1618 1581 1515 1459 1412 1397 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.1 114.4 115.6 116.8 119.1 120.8 121.9 122.5 122.5 122.4 122.3 122.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 652 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 25. 24. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/19/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 3.00 Prob of RI= 9.2% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)