* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 153 155 158 158 156 153 146 130 116 102 82 62 V (KT) LAND 150 153 155 158 158 156 153 146 130 116 88 68 48 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 1 1 2 3 6 11 13 24 28 39 41 SHEAR DIR 273 274 352 125 250 250 143 168 184 199 196 201 221 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.3 27.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 164 162 159 157 155 154 146 146 134 121 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -49.9 -49.3 -49.0 -49.1 -48.6 -47.8 -47.7 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 10 8 10 9 11 9 8 3 1 1 500-300 MB RH 64 63 63 65 58 60 53 49 37 37 32 17 12 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -1 0 0 3 6 4 5 -3 -10 0 -4 5 850 MB VORT 62 92 92 76 77 96 126 133 146 202 229 160 162 LAND (KM) 223 212 223 281 240 152 114 103 149 172 178 477 559 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.4 19.0 20.5 21.0 21.8 23.0 25.0 27.8 31.0 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 83.4 84.0 84.6 85.2 85.5 85.8 86.0 85.6 83.1 78.5 74.1 69.9 HEAT CONTENT 105 95 87 80 84 97 96 87 80 37 44 17 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 107 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -20. -31. -42. -53. -65. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -6. -4. -6. -4. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -2. -10. -24. -37. -50. -68. -87. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 8. 6. 3. -4. -20. -34. -48. -68. -88. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.97 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.83 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.77 Prob of RI= 28.0% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)