* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/19/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 41 44 43 41 37 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 41 44 43 41 37 32 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 13 10 5 5 6 7 11 21 18 23 25 SHEAR DIR 107 113 130 148 168 184 272 230 207 224 227 230 236 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 26.8 25.9 25.0 24.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 144 143 143 142 135 125 116 106 97 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 20 21 24 26 27 28 36 38 40 31 28 23 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 1 1 0 0 5 2 6 2 3 1 7 850 MB VORT -41 -34 -31 -27 -30 -26 -6 -1 -1 1 11 25 34 LAND (KM) 1187 1262 1294 1336 1386 1463 1489 1471 1420 1365 1293 1195 1056 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.4 17.5 18.6 19.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.3 115.5 116.6 117.7 119.6 121.0 122.0 122.6 122.9 122.9 122.6 122.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 600 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -20 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 17. 15. 11. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 18. 16. 12. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/19/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.38 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.83 Prob of RI= 6.1% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)