* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 140 143 147 150 153 146 136 123 102 75 53 36 V (KT) LAND 140 140 143 147 150 153 146 136 123 87 60 37 20 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 5 3 6 7 9 13 21 44 64 82 96 SHEAR DIR 309 334 284 304 274 200 232 230 241 242 241 241 245 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.3 27.4 26.3 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 162 160 157 155 154 146 146 134 122 84 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -49.9 -50.4 -49.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 8 4 3 1 0 500-300 MB RH 61 63 62 58 65 65 66 56 56 49 46 48 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 -9 0 4 4 1 4 -11 -47 -9 15 850 MB VORT 86 85 69 62 73 65 89 72 133 78 11 85 138 LAND (KM) 201 231 274 278 211 104 98 113 186 95 377 470 257 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.8 21.7 23.0 24.8 27.8 32.0 36.5 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.8 84.3 84.9 85.4 85.9 86.0 85.2 83.1 79.4 74.2 70.3 67.5 HEAT CONTENT 98 89 82 83 89 95 87 79 43 43 22 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 584 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 112 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 150 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -15. -25. -35. -46. -58. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -13. -23. -29. -30. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 11. 12. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 1. -9. -21. -41. -66. -86.-103. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 6. -4. -17. -38. -65. -87.-104. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.93 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 22.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 4.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.77 Prob of RI= 28.2% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)