* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/19/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 52 54 54 52 51 50 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 52 54 54 52 51 50 49 SHEAR (KTS) 9 13 13 11 9 7 5 11 18 20 16 14 6 SHEAR DIR 124 136 144 159 147 144 176 159 166 168 170 168 142 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 144 143 143 143 144 143 143 142 142 143 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 22 22 24 27 31 38 42 42 39 36 30 26 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 3 3 1 1 -1 0 7 1 0 2 2 850 MB VORT -26 -28 -27 -29 -27 -24 -10 -4 2 10 0 -2 -10 LAND (KM) 1282 1316 1355 1398 1446 1518 1549 1566 1583 1587 1562 1562 1579 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.8 116.7 117.6 118.5 119.9 121.1 121.9 122.4 122.7 122.7 122.7 122.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 533 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -24 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. 19. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 24. 24. 22. 21. 20. 19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/19/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.30 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 114.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 3.49 Prob of RI= 18.2% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)