* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 138 139 140 143 146 142 131 117 98 79 61 49 V (KT) LAND 140 138 139 140 143 146 142 131 117 75 62 44 32 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 4 6 2 6 8 15 25 29 39 51 57 SHEAR DIR 310 299 283 289 322 214 175 229 210 233 219 229 249 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.1 26.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 162 160 159 155 154 151 146 146 143 126 106 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -49.9 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -50.4 -49.5 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 10 9 9 8 7 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 59 57 57 59 64 65 64 51 49 50 53 62 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -6 1 -3 0 0 1 11 8 11 17 5 850 MB VORT 83 71 68 90 103 106 114 131 138 107 118 128 199 LAND (KM) 245 287 252 200 129 62 153 188 212 -57 361 380 379 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 24.9 26.7 29.3 33.6 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.6 85.1 85.5 85.9 86.3 86.1 85.2 83.5 80.7 77.0 72.4 67.5 HEAT CONTENT 85 79 83 89 93 91 79 76 39 9999 32 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 150 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -6. -15. -26. -36. -45. -57. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -19. -17. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -2. 1. 3. -1. -12. -25. -43. -61. -78. -90. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 2. -9. -23. -42. -61. -79. -91. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 29.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.82 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 21.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.96 Scaled RI index= 4.65 Prob of RI= 23.2% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)