* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/20/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 41 46 49 50 51 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 41 46 49 50 51 51 48 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 13 13 12 6 10 10 16 14 11 9 12 SHEAR DIR 126 129 135 143 148 189 187 179 193 201 195 180 174 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 143 143 143 143 144 143 143 141 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 500-300 MB RH 24 25 26 28 33 42 41 41 33 25 21 17 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 4 5 3 4 2 2 0 4 0 0 0 3 850 MB VORT -9 -15 -21 -20 -21 -14 -10 -12 -21 -36 -31 -36 -53 LAND (KM) 1309 1348 1393 1428 1466 1524 1552 1563 1572 1574 1594 1607 1629 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.3 117.2 118.0 118.8 120.1 121.0 121.6 122.0 122.4 122.8 123.3 123.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 621 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -33 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 22. 23. 23. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. 23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/20/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.34 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.29 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.15 Scaled RI index= 2.76 Prob of RI= 4.8% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)