* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/20/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 34 40 44 47 48 48 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 34 40 44 47 48 48 46 43 SHEAR (KTS) 8 7 10 11 7 6 8 16 20 17 19 13 13 SHEAR DIR 147 143 131 144 172 183 154 179 175 179 182 198 195 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 143 143 143 143 143 143 142 141 139 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 500-300 MB RH 24 25 28 35 38 43 42 38 35 29 24 19 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 1 -3 5 3 3 3 850 MB VORT -5 -13 -13 -13 -10 -14 -14 -11 -14 -33 -15 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1350 1391 1438 1464 1494 1543 1576 1560 1525 1515 1560 1575 1577 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.1 15.4 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.6 118.5 119.2 119.8 120.7 121.8 122.2 122.3 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. 16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 21. 18. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/20/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 2.95 Prob of RI= 8.3% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)