* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 125 127 129 133 131 122 111 98 81 62 48 V (KT) LAND 125 124 125 127 129 133 131 122 111 98 71 52 38 SHEAR (KTS) 10 7 7 5 6 6 8 18 18 22 33 62 69 SHEAR DIR 293 315 253 242 200 181 192 209 225 204 201 210 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 26.8 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 159 157 155 155 152 149 146 146 127 91 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -50.5 -49.7 -49.7 -49.2 -49.9 -48.0 -47.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 8 10 9 8 5 3 1 1 0 500-300 MB RH 56 63 63 64 66 61 53 48 44 47 55 51 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 3 3 3 -1 5 10 31 17 57 29 12 850 MB VORT 64 86 90 90 99 116 103 112 97 78 105 144 294 LAND (KM) 252 207 162 117 58 20 114 122 156 0 262 369 339 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.2 25.8 28.3 33.4 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.6 85.9 86.3 86.6 86.7 85.7 84.7 83.7 81.4 77.8 72.7 66.8 HEAT CONTENT 81 84 91 92 96 92 74 76 63 29 40 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 571 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 135 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -9. -17. -24. -32. -42. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 18. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 3. -6. -16. -28. -45. -62. -76. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 6. -3. -14. -27. -44. -63. -77. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.94 Scaled RI index= 4.68 Prob of RI= 24.5% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)