* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/20/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 39 41 41 42 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 39 41 41 42 41 38 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 13 12 10 9 13 18 16 18 11 10 6 SHEAR DIR 155 135 149 166 195 183 187 192 192 187 201 180 211 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 143 143 144 143 143 142 141 140 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 25 26 32 36 37 34 36 35 31 26 19 19 18 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 4 3 4 0 2 2 1 3 0 1 3 850 MB VORT -14 -19 -19 -13 -7 -33 -23 -33 -32 -32 -18 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1426 1449 1475 1516 1555 1579 1545 1549 1569 1575 1536 1567 1625 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.6 119.3 120.1 120.9 122.1 122.1 122.4 122.9 123.2 123.1 123.7 124.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 530 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/20/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.27 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.03 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 2.44 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)