* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 127 130 133 137 134 126 115 98 79 57 38 V (KT) LAND 125 125 127 130 133 137 134 126 115 73 61 40 21 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 5 5 3 6 8 15 14 31 53 78 111 SHEAR DIR 289 277 259 189 160 186 179 223 227 238 241 242 244 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.2 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 157 155 155 155 152 148 146 141 121 74 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -50.4 -49.8 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.5 -49.6 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 10 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 61 60 61 67 64 57 56 52 53 59 61 60 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 1 0 0 2 4 15 21 25 18 12 -11 850 MB VORT 74 94 85 96 97 94 108 99 88 97 145 91 124 LAND (KM) 215 170 125 76 14 56 93 109 179 -9 436 458 42 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.6 24.6 26.9 30.5 36.3 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.9 86.2 86.5 86.8 86.4 85.3 84.2 82.9 80.2 75.9 70.6 64.9 HEAT CONTENT 82 91 92 94 101 85 72 78 47 45 21 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 587 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 76 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -19. -27. -35. -45. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 5. -3. -13. -28. -46. -66. -85. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 9. 1. -10. -27. -46. -68. -87. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 33.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.06 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.93 Prob of RI= 34.3% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)