* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 10/20/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 42 43 43 44 42 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 42 43 43 44 42 39 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 11 10 11 13 17 18 15 14 10 10 8 SHEAR DIR 175 170 169 193 189 197 196 185 190 184 178 163 157 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 143 144 143 142 141 139 137 136 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 23 29 34 34 31 30 32 29 26 21 19 15 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 6 3 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 6 5 850 MB VORT -16 -20 -20 -21 -25 -33 -37 -36 -45 -36 -28 -17 -14 LAND (KM) 1473 1508 1546 1564 1581 1593 1604 1632 1660 1683 1685 1732 1796 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.0 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.7 120.5 121.1 121.6 122.3 122.7 123.2 123.8 124.3 124.7 125.2 125.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 557 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 14. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 17. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 10/20/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 2.81 Prob of RI= 5.6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)