* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/21/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 132 134 135 135 129 120 108 95 74 51 33 V (KT) LAND 130 130 132 134 135 135 129 120 108 79 64 41 22 SHEAR (KTS) 13 9 2 2 4 8 13 17 14 28 59 81 101 SHEAR DIR 294 283 216 157 113 172 172 223 237 237 231 238 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 26.3 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 157 155 154 154 152 151 148 145 122 83 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -49.9 -49.6 -50.4 -50.5 -49.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -49.7 -50.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 10 10 9 9 4 5 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 61 58 61 64 63 56 52 51 58 63 62 68 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 -1 -1 -4 1 2 8 13 8 23 39 34 850 MB VORT 80 76 92 98 97 100 115 81 95 111 144 94 103 LAND (KM) 176 132 86 46 6 15 136 138 115 -51 316 300 287 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.6 22.6 23.4 23.9 26.0 29.6 34.9 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.2 86.5 86.7 86.9 86.9 86.4 85.1 83.3 80.7 77.6 72.7 66.8 HEAT CONTENT 90 91 93 97 102 84 78 78 66 9999 30 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 568 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 32 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 125 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -23. -32. -40. -51. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -16. -23. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -5. -14. -25. -37. -57. -78. -96. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. -1. -10. -22. -35. -56. -79. -97. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/21/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 27.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.01 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.98 Scaled RI index= 5.17 Prob of RI= 42.4% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)