* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/21/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 130 132 133 131 126 115 103 86 67 46 27 V (KT) LAND 130 129 130 132 102 103 98 88 75 52 37 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 3 3 8 10 11 19 21 32 55 79 104 SHEAR DIR 278 275 274 201 212 179 193 210 215 233 240 247 252 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 26.2 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 155 154 154 154 152 149 146 145 121 77 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 -50.5 -50.7 -49.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 12 11 10 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 57 58 59 57 56 54 52 55 59 62 60 62 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 1 0 -6 4 2 10 12 19 11 0 48 25 850 MB VORT 74 87 86 85 88 94 90 79 82 125 125 85 64 LAND (KM) 137 98 43 0 -20 45 132 135 143 -51 312 313 182 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.3 24.1 26.2 29.5 35.1 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.4 86.7 86.9 87.1 86.9 86.3 85.2 83.6 81.1 77.6 72.5 66.4 HEAT CONTENT 91 92 97 103 9999 76 78 78 65 9999 29 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 584 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 80 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -16. -25. -34. -42. -52. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -14. -22. -27. -28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -6. -17. -29. -45. -63. -83.-102. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. 2. 3. 1. -4. -15. -27. -44. -63. -84.-103. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/21/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.90 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 26.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.85 Scaled RI index= 4.80 Prob of RI= 29.2% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)