* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 127 128 129 126 118 106 91 73 55 38 24 V (KT) LAND 125 124 127 104 105 102 94 82 67 44 33 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 5 4 9 8 18 16 25 31 41 49 64 78 SHEAR DIR 270 287 186 189 197 163 170 175 169 191 202 204 218 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 26.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 154 154 154 152 149 146 146 128 110 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -49.6 -49.6 -48.8 -49.0 -48.1 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 12 10 9 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 57 60 56 55 54 55 51 49 48 37 17 14 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 1 -6 3 0 1 4 5 -2 -4 18 8 17 850 MB VORT 79 95 90 84 82 110 103 110 119 157 170 155 196 LAND (KM) 95 48 10 -15 7 39 117 129 145 -7 244 354 435 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 23.3 24.1 25.9 28.7 33.2 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.6 86.8 87.1 87.3 87.4 86.4 85.1 83.7 81.4 78.1 73.1 66.8 HEAT CONTENT 93 97 102 94 78 60 78 79 65 29 37 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 80 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -21. -29. -36. -46. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -3. -3. -8. -11. -14. -20. -26. -33. -35. -33. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. -3. -11. -22. -37. -53. -70. -85. -99. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -7. -19. -34. -52. -70. -87.-101. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 30.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.03 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.72 Prob of RI= 26.2% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)