* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/21/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 40 44 45 48 48 50 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 39 40 41 44 43 45 42 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 15 16 16 12 14 16 12 16 56 92 99 SHEAR DIR 294 306 335 3 21 26 30 45 43 205 231 240 252 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 28.9 27.7 26.1 22.2 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 155 138 120 93 73 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -50.9 -49.0 -48.9 -49.1 -48.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 13 13 12 11 3 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 55 55 55 59 60 46 49 46 54 56 50 47 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 6 1 -9 0 0 0 0 0 8 15 53 30 850 MB VORT -1 18 20 22 1 -39 -43 -68 58 122 150 191 139 LAND (KM) 255 323 402 339 293 162 4 42 283 698 596 321 211 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.8 18.1 20.1 23.3 28.5 34.8 40.9 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.3 65.7 66.9 68.1 70.1 72.0 73.6 74.4 73.2 69.4 63.8 57.5 HEAT CONTENT 106 96 91 110 125 125 96 79 45 15 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 647 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -5. -2. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 25. 26. 30. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 20. 24. 25. 28. 28. 30. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/21/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 30.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.95 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 4.50 Prob of RI= 19.3% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)