* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 123 125 126 122 115 102 86 68 49 34 21 V (KT) LAND 120 120 93 77 66 67 60 46 31 22 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 1 6 7 9 15 15 27 36 51 61 71 87 SHEAR DIR 288 198 185 174 169 161 161 184 186 207 201 208 228 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 27.7 26.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 154 154 154 154 151 146 146 138 122 86 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.8 -49.8 -50.0 -49.5 -49.5 -48.6 -48.6 -48.5 -48.3 -48.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 9 10 9 8 5 1 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 56 55 53 55 54 52 55 51 46 31 14 15 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 -2 -4 -1 -2 3 12 11 9 -11 13 -7 12 850 MB VORT 82 89 93 97 103 100 120 109 173 187 213 222 164 LAND (KM) 50 12 -24 -41 -15 41 132 132 83 123 389 504 257 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.7 25.3 27.8 31.2 36.0 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.0 87.2 87.3 87.4 87.2 86.3 84.5 82.2 79.1 75.5 70.2 63.7 HEAT CONTENT 96 100 9999 9999 84 65 76 73 34 42 21 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 621 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 130 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -20. -28. -35. -45. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -12. -17. -26. -32. -35. -32. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 2. -2. -9. -22. -36. -52. -70. -84. -97. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 3. 5. 6. 2. -5. -18. -34. -52. -71. -86. -99. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 35.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.64 Prob of RI= 22.7% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)