* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/21/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 44 47 49 52 52 52 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 40 43 45 48 48 48 44 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 14 17 15 11 12 13 10 25 54 79 88 SHEAR DIR 297 322 358 20 37 62 44 82 45 208 220 243 274 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.5 28.7 27.6 26.2 24.9 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 152 137 121 110 75 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -50.6 -49.0 -48.7 -48.6 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 13 13 13 12 11 4 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 61 61 65 64 54 59 55 55 52 47 32 25 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 4 -4 -5 -4 0 0 -1 1 8 21 24 63 850 MB VORT 31 31 30 7 -11 -28 -51 -77 100 153 173 168 125 LAND (KM) 292 369 378 320 239 46 1 93 390 714 562 460 326 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.3 16.0 17.3 18.9 20.9 24.3 29.1 34.4 39.7 43.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.4 65.7 67.0 68.1 69.2 71.1 72.7 73.8 74.3 73.0 69.9 63.3 52.4 HEAT CONTENT 87 93 108 118 127 109 99 59 49 12 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 641 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -5. -2. 1. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 29. 31. 33. 30. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 24. 27. 29. 32. 32. 32. 28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/21/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 30.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.94 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 4.87 Prob of RI= 32.1% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)