* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 121 122 120 116 106 93 76 55 33 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 120 102 88 75 65 66 57 44 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 5 10 16 16 25 26 45 63 65 71 85 SHEAR DIR 267 239 180 158 154 164 171 174 189 197 201 214 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.1 26.4 24.5 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 154 154 154 148 146 143 123 106 75 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -49.4 -49.8 -48.4 -48.5 -48.3 -48.0 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 10 11 10 8 7 4 2 0 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 55 51 53 53 48 52 56 45 36 14 20 16 21 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 1 2 -1 8 8 4 14 3 -1 11 20 850 MB VORT 76 83 85 95 98 109 124 152 206 189 88 170 145 LAND (KM) 21 0 -20 -25 -13 83 143 191 -66 382 381 457 179 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.4 22.2 23.2 24.6 26.6 29.9 34.3 39.3 44.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 87.2 86.7 85.4 83.3 80.8 77.0 72.0 66.0 59.2 HEAT CONTENT 99 102 9999 9999 87 71 79 45 9999 31 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 125 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -21. -29. -38. -49. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -25. -35. -41. -39. -35. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -17. -29. -45. -65. -85. -99.-111. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 0. -4. -14. -27. -44. -65. -87.-101.-112. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.90 Scaled RI index= 4.61 Prob of RI= 22.2% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)