* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/22/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 40 43 45 47 50 52 46 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 28 33 37 39 41 44 46 39 SHEAR (KTS) 12 19 17 15 13 9 14 11 4 39 66 96 97 SHEAR DIR 314 347 10 18 20 10 29 10 274 236 260 283 300 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 28.8 27.6 25.9 24.3 12.5 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 154 137 118 105 71 82 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -48.9 -48.5 -49.4 -49.5 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 7 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 60 62 60 52 51 52 49 56 57 47 38 30 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 -6 -3 -4 0 0 0 2 17 13 67 13 850 MB VORT 9 5 -14 -20 -38 -57 -85 -7 165 193 214 122 23 LAND (KM) 379 283 212 146 97 -67 88 377 790 719 450 291 1083 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.9 20.7 23.7 28.8 35.0 41.1 45.3 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.3 67.5 68.5 69.5 71.2 72.7 73.3 72.0 68.0 60.4 49.9 39.4 HEAT CONTENT 86 104 119 98 106 9999 77 49 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 631 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -3 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -6. -2. 3. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 26. 31. 34. 28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 30. 32. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/22/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.94 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 145.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 5.06 Prob of RI= 38.7% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)