* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 115 114 112 104 90 72 51 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 98 85 94 92 84 69 48 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 7 14 19 24 33 43 65 72 86 93 79 SHEAR DIR 234 231 177 155 161 168 192 180 192 188 208 223 242 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.2 26.1 19.2 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 154 149 146 146 132 120 82 71 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -50.5 -50.2 -49.2 -49.4 -48.2 -48.9 -48.6 -47.4 -45.3 -44.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 11 10 9 8 5 2 1 2 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 50 51 52 51 49 47 49 38 17 17 16 25 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 1 0 8 10 7 -10 17 6 6 29 5 850 MB VORT 79 89 105 113 109 123 123 186 198 127 146 165 88 LAND (KM) -16 -20 -1 20 41 161 175 0 216 380 475 222 13 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.8 24.2 25.9 28.3 32.3 37.8 42.8 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.1 87.1 87.2 87.2 86.3 84.3 81.6 78.3 73.7 68.1 62.1 56.0 HEAT CONTENT 102 9999 84 75 65 79 62 31 40 16 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 648 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 120 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -20. -28. -38. -50. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -23. -31. -44. -53. -57. -53. -45. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -23. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 26. 26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -1. -3. -11. -26. -43. -63. -83.-102.-115.-127. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. 0. -1. -3. -11. -25. -43. -64. -85.-104.-117.-128. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 39.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 4.44 Prob of RI= 17.9% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)