* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 10/22/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 49 55 56 56 56 50 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 36 39 45 46 46 46 40 29 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 17 15 14 12 14 10 35 34 59 71 57 SHEAR DIR 327 349 7 25 61 37 94 125 210 215 287 324 339 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.2 28.4 27.1 26.2 21.5 22.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 148 131 121 90 95 99 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -48.9 -49.0 -48.9 -49.8 -50.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 7 2 1 0 0 1 500-300 MB RH 60 57 51 52 56 49 52 55 39 23 26 29 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -6 -3 0 0 -3 8 -13 6 -4 2 10 850 MB VORT -1 -17 -27 -35 -38 -65 -2 151 189 225 171 -14 -19 LAND (KM) 281 225 167 122 21 0 150 553 607 722 632 1519 1589 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 19.3 21.9 26.2 31.2 36.6 41.1 40.0 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.6 68.8 69.9 71.0 72.8 74.4 74.6 71.6 65.2 51.7 36.7 26.9 HEAT CONTENT 106 121 110 115 96 98 46 46 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 653 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 10. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. 0. 5. 9. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 23. 25. 27. 27. 21. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 19. 25. 26. 26. 26. 20. 9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 10/22/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.37 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.75 Prob of RI= 27.2% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)