* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * WILMA 10/22/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 104 104 103 98 86 70 52 38 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 91 92 92 92 86 66 56 39 24 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 4 13 16 17 27 32 46 58 84 94 98 86 SHEAR DIR 226 175 141 154 165 177 192 208 224 232 243 246 254 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 26.3 25.2 21.0 14.9 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 155 155 152 148 143 122 112 88 73 70 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -49.1 -49.7 -48.0 -48.5 -48.7 -48.0 -46.9 -46.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 50 51 49 51 52 54 59 51 42 36 33 39 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 1 0 5 12 21 25 17 2 54 18 24 12 850 MB VORT 70 94 116 116 118 116 162 180 184 173 148 90 75 LAND (KM) -10 -5 0 52 106 113 -2 416 474 485 292 226 166 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.8 22.2 23.4 25.4 29.2 34.4 39.0 42.3 44.9 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.0 86.9 86.6 86.3 84.7 81.2 76.4 70.9 65.9 61.5 56.5 50.9 HEAT CONTENT 100 95 89 79 78 78 37 26 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 120 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -17. -26. -37. -49. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -19. -26. -33. -37. -38. -33. -28. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -23. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -11. -22. -37. -52. -67. -83. -96.-108. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -1. -1. -2. -7. -19. -35. -53. -67. -84. -98.-109. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) WILMA 10/22/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.21 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)